If You Want Peace, Prepare For War

Written by Andriy Vyshyvanuk

The time when Europe could rely on cheap Russian natural resources and protection from the United States forces with minimal military spending is over. For decades, Europe has depended on NATO and U.S. military power for security, but the Trump administration has shown less commitment to defend its allies as Russia continues to strengthen its military despite economic sanctions, posing a severe threat to Europe’s security. The recent Vice President JD Vence’s speech at the Munich Security Conference and evolving U.S. foreign policies under Trump’s administration evidence the start of a new era for European security, as relationships between allies become more strained. 

Meanwhile, U.S. officials have initiated peace talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia, without inviting Ukraine and EU leaders to them.  Although U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has informed that European and Ukrainian stances and suggestions will be considered, it is clear that Europe will have little control over the outcome of the peace talks. This harsh reality suggests that Europe must take more responsibility for its own security, by increasing military spending, and preparing to become the main guarantor of lasting peace in Ukraine—possibly by deploying peacekeeping troops—to ensure stability in the broader region.

Europe must significantly increase defense spending to secure its eastern borders, particularly in Poland and the Baltic states. Maintaining lasting peace in Ukraine after any potential US—Russia deal will also be crucial for Europe’s security, as Ukraine remains Europe’s main defense against Russian aggression and expansion.

While the terms for the mediation of war in Ukraine are still unclear, it seems Europe and Ukraine will have limited influence on them, despite being the most affected by any failed peace. In response, several EU states, including France and the UK, are considering deploying troops to Ukraine to secure lasting peace in Ukraine, and prevent Russian expansionism to European states. Moreover, Germany’s likely future chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has also informed about the possibility of considering such a move. French President Emmanuel Macron has announced an emergency European Summit, which is likely to address current security concerns.

Despite having well-trained and well-equipped national armies, Europe’s collective military capability remains limited, compared with Russia, which has gained three years experience of in modern warfare in Ukraine, expanded its army to more than a million personnel, and reallocated most of the factors of production for military needs. Years of underinvestment in defense have left many European states with limited rapid deployment forces. Current estimates suggest that European nations could contribute only around 25,000 troops to a Ukraine peacekeeping effort, which is an insufficient force to deter Russia’s million-strong army. 

If Europe is to meet today’s security challenges, its nations must act with unprecedented unity and determination. This may require bold and revolutionary steps, such as establishing a fully integrated European military force. As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi recently declared, “The time has come for the creation of the Armed Forces of Europe.” Whether European leaders will meet this challenge remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the need for new increased security initiatives is more urgent than ever.